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"Given the fast-changing landscape, I believe those who move fast (with wage hikes) should become competitive." A demand made this year by Rengo, Japan's largest trade union confederation, for pay hikes of "around 5%" resulted in average wage hikes of 3.58% among major companies. Six out of 10 economists in a Reuters poll expect major firms' pay hikes in 2024 to exceed this year's. The key, however, would be whether wage hikes broaden to smaller firms and those in the regional areas. A report by the BOJ's regional branch managers in October warned wage hikes remained uneven among sectors with many firms undecided on next year's pay increments.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Takeshi Niinami, Fumio, Kazuo Ueda, Hisashi Yamada, Rengo, Atsushi Takeda, Kishida, Keita Kondo, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Holmes, Leika Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Suntory Holdings Ltd, Reuters, Meiji, Life Insurance, Suntory Holdings, Bank, Japan, Hosei University, OECD, UA Zensen, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Ukraine, Saitama

☆ Japan's export growth slows as China, global downturn risks loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A worker is seen among newly manufactured cars awaiting export at port in Yokohama, Japan, November 15, 2017. Weak exports have complicated Japan's efforts to spur economic growth with sluggish domestic demand also weighing on the post-pandemic recovery. Japan's export growth slowsJapan's economy weakened in July-September, snapping two straight quarters of expansion on soft consumption and exports, data showed on Wednesday. By destination, exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, fell 4.0% year-on-year in October, posting 11 straight months of declines. The trade balance came to a deficit of 662.5 billion yen ($4.38 billion), versus the median estimate for a 735.7 billion yen deficit.

Persons: Toru Hanai, Atsushi Takeda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Satoshi Sugiyama, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, TOKYO, Ministry of Finance, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Yokohama, Japan, China, United States, Europe

"The tankan confirmed our view that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. "While input prices have declined, output prices continue to rise in a sign companies are being able to pass on costs. Big manufacturers expect business conditions to improve three months ahead, while non-manufacturers project a deterioration on worries over high costs, the tankan showed. The tankan showed corporate inflation expectations moderate in June from three months ago, but remaining above the BOJ's target five years down the road. Companies expect inflation to hit 2.6% a year from now, down from a 2.8% projection made in March, and 2.2% in three years, also lower than 2.3% in March.

Persons: Atsushi Takeda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Big, Bank of Japan's, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Nikkei, Companies, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ Japan business sentiment improves in second quarter, Bank of Japan's tankan survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tokyo Skytree (R) and Mount Fuji are seen from the I-link Town observatory in Ichikawa city, Chiba prefecture, east of Tokyo on July 2, 2023. Japanese business sentiment improved in the second quarter as raw material costs peaked and the removal of pandemic curbs lifted factory output and consumption, a central bank survey showed, a sign the economy was on course for a steady recovery. Companies expect to increase capital expenditure and project inflation to stay above the Bank of Japan's 2% target five years ahead, the quarterly "tankan" showed, offering policymakers hope that conditions for phasing out their massive monetary stimulus may be gradually falling into place. Strong capital expenditure also led to brighter sentiment among machinery makers," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. "The tankan confirmed our view that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery."

Persons: Atsushi Takeda Organizations: Mount, Bank of Japan's, Itochu Economic Research Institute Locations: Tokyo, Mount Fuji, Ichikawa city, Chiba prefecture

☆ China's rising clout spotlighted at finance chief meetings before G7 summit
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China is among the biggest markets for most G7 countries, particularly for export-reliant economies such as Japan and Germany. In a joint statement on Saturday, the G7 finance chiefs stressed the urgency of addressing debt vulnerabilities in low- and middle-income countries, mentioning Zambia, Ethiopia, Ghana and Sri Lanka. "There were talks about coercion" at the G7 finance leaders' meeting, the Japanese finance ministry official said. The G7 summit will most likely have a special session on China to debate Beijing's "economic coercion" against other countries, according to a Reuters report. "No matter how the G7 want to fence in the Global South, it's not easy," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at the Itochu Economic Research Institute.

☆ Japan's factory output posts biggest fall in 8 months on weak autos, chips sectors
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In contrast, retail sales posted their fastest growth in nearly two years, separate data showed, highlighting the divergent paths between soft manufacturing and robust service-sector activity. Factory output fell 4.6% in January from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, government data showed on Tuesday. Separate data showed Japanese retail sales rose 6.3% in January from a year earlier, beating a median market forecast for a 4.0% gain and posting an eleventh consecutive month of expansion. Despite the production cuts, retail sales of autos rose 19.3% year-on-year, suggesting strong pent-up demand among domestic consumers caused by delivery delays. Compared with the previous month, retail sales expanded 1.9% in January, following a 1.1% rise in December, the data showed.

[1/3] A cargo ship and containers are seen at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan, February 15, 2022. The world's third-biggest economy has struggled to motor on despite the recent lifting of COVID curbs, and has faced intensifying pressure from red-hot global inflation, sweeping interest rate increases worldwide and the Ukraine war. GLOBAL RISKSHowever, the risks to Japan's outlook have risen as the global economy teeters on the brink of recession. Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said a global recession could hit households and businesses. "As for 2023, Japan will be dragged into a mild recession in H1 by a global downturn that will weigh on exports and business investment."

☆ BOJ's Kuroda vows to continue monetary easing for now, focuses on wages
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Kuroda said the job market is expected to tighten, particularly at service sector firms, many of which employ low-paid part timers and contract workers. The annual labour-management wage negotiations next spring will likely take into account both the tightening of the job market and rising inflation, he added. "We are at a stage where we will continue monetary easing to firmly back economic activity at present," Kuroda told a meeting with business leaders in Nagoya in central Japan. "The wages hold the key to see whether sustainable inflation take hold. In that sense, tightening of the labour market may be an encouraging signal to Governor Kuroda," Takeda said.

☆ Japan's economy shrinks for first time in a year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank for the first time in a year in the third quarter, stoking further uncertainty about the outlook as global recession risks, a weak yen and higher import costs took a toll on household consumption and businesses. The world’s third biggest economy has struggled to motor on despite the recent lifting of Covid curbs, and has faced intensifying pressure from red-hot global inflation, sweeping interest rate increases worldwide and the Ukraine war. “But the three key pillars of demand - consumption, capital expenditure and exports - remained in positive territory, if not robust, so demand is not as weak as the headline figure shows.”Global risksHowever, the risks to Japan’s outlook have risen as the global economy teeters on the brink of recession. Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said a global recession could hit households and businesses. The Bank of Japan has also maintained its ultra-loose monetary stimulus program to help revive the economy.

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